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Hydropower Vulnerability Assessment in the Face of Climate Change Impacts Case Study: Karkheh River Basin
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Abstract: (7270 Views) |
| Given the important role of hydropower in peak electricity management, Middle Eastern countries are actively pursuing development of more hydropower resources by construction of large dams. Nonetheless, climate change is expected to affect the future productivity of hydropower by influencing the hydrologic cycle and different climate variables in the region. While reactive plans to minimize climate change impacts on hydropower production have been implemented in the developed world, the developing world can still benefit from proactive actions. Studies of climate change impacts before and during implementation of hydropower projects can result in timely responses and adaptation to climate change, with a potential with considerable cost savings. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the hydropower systems in the Karkheh River Basin —the third largest river basin in Iran— in terms of potential for hydroelectricity generation. A simulation model is developed to examine how hydropower generation levels vary for different future climate change scenarios in this representative Middle Eastern basin. The obtained results suggest that the existing operation rules and design specifications, developed based on the historical climatic conditions, can lead to inefficient operations of the hydropower in the basin. Due to insignificant streamflow reductions in short-term, hydropower production may not change considerably in the near future. However, serious hydropower generation deficit is expected in the mid-term and long-term horizons in the Karkheh River Basin. Therefore, adaptation to the future climate change conditions and revision of the operation rule curves and design specifications is essential to optimal hydropower operations in this basin. |
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| Keywords: 1. Climate Change, Karkheh Basin, Water Resources Simulation Model, Hydropower |
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Full-Text [PDF 1050 kb]
(1943 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
هیدرولوژی و برنامه ریزی منابع آب
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