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Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Surface Runoff with the Approach of CMIP6 (Case Study: Inflow of Shirindare Dam in North Khorasan Province)
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Saeed Jamali   , Shahrzad Firouzi |
| , sae.jamali@iauctb.ac.ir |
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Abstract: (14 Views) |
Climate change significantly impacts river flows that supply water storage in dam reservoirs, posing challenges for water resource management. This study evaluates climate change effects on runoff flow in the upstream basin of Shirin Dareh Dam, North Khorasan Province. Using CMIP6 models, the IPSL and GFDL models were selected with SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. Comparing 2025-2050 projections with the 1985-2014 baseline, the average annual temperature is expected to rise by 0.8°C in the SSP370 scenario and 1.6-3.5°C in the SSP585 scenario. Concurrently, average annual precipitation will decline by 40 mm and 54 mm in SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. Runoff flow is predicted to decrease by 0.16 m³/s and 0.23 m³/s in the SSP370 scenario based on IPSL and GFDL data. The SSP585 scenario shows a more severe reduction, with a maximum decline of 0.79 m³/s, equating to a 36.7% decrease in total average flow.
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| Keywords: Climate Change, Runoff Flow, CMIP6, IHACRES Model |
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Full-Text [PDF 532 kb]
(4 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
هیدرولوژی و برنامه ریزی منابع آب
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